Date:	2007-05-30 20:09
Subject:	An end and a new beginning
Security:	Public
Mood:	jubilant

I don't feel bad that we are beginning to live with a world without oil. It was inevitable.

In fact, I don't feel bad at all.

Date:	2007-05-13 13:08
Subject:	Its time to get political
Security:	Public
Mood:	okay

I don't watch nature shows anymore. I don't read most articles about our collapsing environment either. Its just too painful and I can't take it anymore. I don't want to live in a world without wild polar bears. So I support Nature Conservancy and the Essex Country Field Naturalists'. Every year I add more native plants to my small backyard.

But I know I need to do more.

I think we've picked most of the low-hanging fruit when it comes to reducing our environmental footprint of our family. Our house is an older, tree-filled neighbourhood with a lawn small enough to cut with a push-mower. We compost. We recycle. Last year we replaced our furnace with an energy efficient module and did an energy audit on how house to identify leaks. We live close enough to work that we could bike the commute if necessary (but since we take our toddler to daycare, we do drive). I'm replacing the burn-out bulbs with energy efficient ones and am saving up to do the same once a large appliance goes. I travel by plane only once a year - and that's within the continent. I work for a university library and my partner owns a store in the local farmers market. There's still more to be done, but my goal is to live modestly - not austerely.

Now to move the work from the private sphere into the public. For me, I think its time to bring the level of engagement and scope up a degree of magnitude. But collective action in environmental matters is surprisingly very hard to do. And yet the potential energy that is wants to be of use is massive. I know that there are so many others who are like me and who want a way to do more in this world. There has to be something more than making a good example out of yourself.

There are 1443 active individuals committed to a World Without Oil. Suppose everyone of them was willing to give up $1000 to the cause. Suddenly there is 1.4 million dollars to start up something wonderful. But what would it be - where would it go and who would benefit first? Who gets what when and how is my favourite definition of Politics. There's a surprisingly little politics in the World Without Oil.  I've only been able to find one instance in which someone suggests that we contact our political representative to act on our behalf. You already have a political representative at your city, state, and national level. You should talk to them - they work for you.

Two of humanity's greatest sins - slavery and apartheid - were enshrined in law through politics and abolished in law through politics. There will be politics in a world without oil.

Wow! I just met the one tonne challenge!

Err... I would have if the present government hadn't axed that program!

Date:	2007-05-10 06:43
Subject:	just wondering
Security:	Public
Mood:	curious

Whatever happened to Nico?

Well a number of global hot spots have fired up in week nine of a world without oil. It was to be expected, I guess.

In order to keep my mind off of the grim present, I started searching for some clues to our future and I found these old Fueling the Future podcasts. They were done some years ago - before BP ruined its reputation in Alaska. Ah - here's the tie-in book - so the series was done around 2003.

I listened to Part One and it reminded me about the Shell Scenarios. I had first heard about Shell's Scenario planning when one of my heros starting working with one of the folks responsible for bringing long-term planning into the business world.

Shell's latest set of scenarios begins:

Stressing that our business environment will not be a utopia but a world which is influenced by complex trade-offs embedded in policies, strategies and expectations, we are faced with a stark question: How will the Trilemma~or “triple-dilemma” ~ between efficiency, social justice and security be resolved in a globalised world?

 Low Trust Globalization: a world of heightened globalization and more coercive states and regulators (Carrots and Sticks); Open Door: a world of heightened globalization and more cohesive civil societies (Incentives and Bridges); and Flags: a world in which values are affirmed in a more dogmatic, zero-sum game manner and in which states try to rally divided societies around the flag (Nations and Causes) [gbn]

Date:	2007-05-07 06:25
Subject:	An American Invasion?
Security:	Public
Mood:	weird

Well, I learned from the World Without Oil site that a sister of a blogger has spotted US troops in a 'little known area' of Alberta Canada. There's nothing on the CBC of US forces chasing a supposed terrorist threat of the Oil Sands project and of Canadian troops being moved west. I'm a little skeptical, so I am going to withhold judgment until I hear further evidence.

Its not that I don't believe that the United States would invade another country for its oil under the guise of national security. I'm skeptical because our existing trade agreements make it impossible for Canada to limit its oil production to the United States.

I believe that our government is fully aware of any US military activity in Canadian borders. The US government may have informed us that they are coming over as opposed to asking, but our government knows our neighbour to the North of us well enough to know when to roll over. Our differences aside, our countries will always be close - literally, historically, and emotionally. So maybe the superpower who cried wolf is right this time - maybe there *is* a terrorist threat in Alberta.

Date:	2007-05-06 10:07
Subject:	A Pledge to Do More Groupwork
Security:	Public
Mood:	full

I've been thinking of mpathytest's call for experiments in living with less oil.

What makes the exercise tricky is that most of us have already made the major decisions that affect our immediate oil consumption: how far we live from work and how our home is heated.

But there are other ways we can reduce our indirect oil consumption. For example

It takes 17 percent of the fossil fuel consumed in the United States to produce the food we eat. The result is three-quarters of a ton of carbon dioxide emissions per person, according to researchers at the University of Chicago. And that doesn't account for the fuel it takes to get the products to market... Whether you're a carnivore or herbivore also has CO₂ consequences. We don't blame you for enjoying the occasional filet mignon. But the average meat eater causes a ton and a half more carbon dioxide emissions for food production than the average vegetarian.

Date:	2007-05-04 19:10
Subject:	The self-fulfilling future
Security:	Public
Mood:	hopeful

I'm getting a little worried about the grim, apocalyptic mood that has infected not only the mainstream press but the blogosphere and even World Without Oil in the wake of the oil spike. If we aren't careful, our grim future imagining is going to result in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Its happened before. From Dan Baum, "Deluged" (When Katrina hit, where were the police?) The New Yorker, January 9, 2006

National Guard units from as far away as Puerto Rico showed up in force the weekend after the storm. For the most part, they brought no tools other than M-16s—no chain saws or bulldozers, no grappling hooks, generators, or field hospitals. They were not equipped to clear debris, repair power lines, or deliver mass medical care. Like the city’s armed residents, they had prepared for an uprising, and stood on street corners nervously fingering their weapons. Kevin Shaughnessy, a courtly, gray-haired sergeant first class of the California National Guard, stopped me on St. Charles Avenue to demand I.D., and, after letting me pass, called me back. “Say, you don’t have a map of New Orleans you can spare, do you?” he asked. He also accepted a box of canned food and three gallons of water. “We can sure use it,” he said. ...

That weekend felt like a lawman’s Mardi Gras. The dry slice of New Orleans filled not only with federal and state troops but with well-meaning deputy sheriffs and policemen from as far away as Oregon and Michigan—cops whose activities were uncoördinated, who knew nothing of the city, and who were pumped on rumors of violence. They tumbled out of their cars in boxy bulletproof vests, pointing their M-4 carbines every which way, as though expecting incoming rounds. Adding to the Dodge City atmosphere were such private soldiers as those of Blackwater, U.S.A., who lurked on the broad steps of several mansions, draped in automatic weapons. As I sat on the porch of a house on tranquil St. Charles Avenue on the Saturday night after the storm, a red laser dot from a gunsight moved slowly across my chest.

The phrase on the lips of the guest enforcers was “martial law.” An Oklahoma Guardsman stopped me Sunday afternoon and ordered me to get out of town. When I told him that the N.O.P.D. was allowing reporters to stay, he said, “It’s not up to the police. We’re in charge now. The city’s under martial law. We’re not backing them up anymore—they’re backing us up.” Later, a California Guardsman whose emblems identified him as Sergeant Kelley pointed an M-4 at me and said, “See this? This is martial law. We’re in charge.” The Constitution makes no provision for anything called “martial law,” though Article I allows for the possibility of calling out militia—even of suspending habeas corpus—in times of unrest. The sole large-scale unrest afflicting New Orleans that weekend was thirst and a hankering to bathe.

Date:	2007-05-04 09:51
Subject:	Link from the Library of Congress - Kitchen Gardens
Security:	Public
Mood:	pleased

"The kitchen garden, once a standard fixture of most American households, is gaining renewed attention as one component of the movement towards local, fresh and seasonal foods. Many people who take up kitchen gardening are concerned about the sustainability of a system in which most foods in a typical meal have traveled over 1,000 miles to get to their tables. Some kitchen gardeners are drawn by the variety of heirloom and hybrid plants available to growers, while others are attracted by freshness, flavor and nutritional value.

A kitchen garden does not necessarily require much land or equipment. Many plants will grow happily in containers, and varieties of vegetables, herbs and flowers are available in smaller sizes for growing on patios, decks, balconies, and even on windowsills. With its combination of flowers, herbs and vegetables providing varieties of color, scent and form, a kitchen garden can be as pleasing as a formal flower bed.

The focus of this guide is on the practicalities and history of kitchen gardening. Not intended to be a comprehensive bibliography, this Tracer Bullet is designed -- as the name of the series implies -- to put the reader “on target."

Date:	2007-05-02 06:45
Subject:	Storm is coming. Traffic is slowing
Security:	Public
Mood:	blank

Storm is coming. Traffic is slowing, originally uploaded by Mita.

"Canada and the U.S. also have the largest commercial trading
relationship in the world. A truck-load of products crosses the
border every two seconds. Ambassador Frank McKenna,
speaking at the CSG Annual Meeting in Delaware, said Canada
is biggest export market for every state in New England.
Economic integration is crucial to the U.S.-Canada relationship
and our economic competitiveness abroad. In the auto trade,
Ambassador McKenna noted that an auto part travels across
the border six times before the car is put on the lot for sale." (pdf)



After 9/11, the trucks turned the highway into a parking lot. For miles and miles the trucks sat. Months later, the portable toilets that been placed by the side of highway at given intervals remained. Eventually they were taken away.

I haven't been on the highway to see if they have returned. Gas prices notwithstanding, border traffic is again at a standstill.

Date:	2007-05-01 06:48
Subject:	going through a long long shopping list
Security:	Public
Mood:	groggy

I'm trying to treat this oil spike seriously but its hard because everything still seems the same as it was a couple of days ago. The calm before the storm. And so I'm going to try to make the best of it. I'm going shopping for supplies before they run out.

I suspect that stores are going to run out of stock quickly due to our society's reliance on just in time manufacturing and delivery. There are no warehouses of stockpiled goods anymore. Companies like Walmart have forced manufacturers to be lean as possible and now these businesses have no cushion to help them through such things as oil price spikes. Or to help us.

What has been stockpiled for emergencies? Drugs? Generators? Food? I guess its too late to ask those questions now.

I'm trying to shop like we are going to take an extended camping trip. But for how many months? Should I be buying prepared foods or bulk products like flour and sugar? Will we have electricity? Should I stock up on propane for the bbq or is that going to be too much of a fire hazard? During the Northeast Blackout of 2003 the greatest immediate to public safety was candles. A block worth of stores burnt down not three blocks away from where we live. Candles! Add that to the list...

Every question leads to more questions and to something else on the shopping list.

its a voice message from Detroit

and this image certainly doesn't bode well...

Date:	2007-04-30 08:29
Subject:	Being brave in a new world
Security:	Public
Mood:	cold

Last year, in the early morning the local radio station noticed that a number of gas stations in town had upped rates slightly and gave a heads up to its listeners. Enough listeners made a beeline to the stations who didn't make the increase and the line-ups drew attention of other drivers and the gas stations who promptly upped their rates. Listeners called into the station reporting on the increases and the stations will the lowest rates and these locations were reported back over the air. And before anyone realized what was happening, there was a mad run for gasoline all across the city and this positive feedback caused some stations to run out of gasoline completely. It was like the Great Paper Shortage of 1973.

And now, as so eerily predicted, oil and gas prices have skyrocketed.

What's so odd is that there hasn't been a run on gasoline here. Not yet at least. Folks are sort of stunned . They were so used to kvetching over slight increases in prices that they aren't sure how to react to an actual dramatic leap in gasoline prices. I think this is because most people are hoping that its just a temporary set-back, like the temporary shortage that happened in February due to a small fire in one refinery. But things aren't ever going back to normal ever again.

It still feels very unreal. In many ways, I'm in a good situation here. There's freshwater nearby (mental note: buy bleach!), we are surrounded by prime agricultural land, and winter is months away. And yet, the economy that surrounds me is dependent on the automotive industry and it will be taken down. And then there's Detroit. Oh Detroit! It barely survives during the best of times. The city has exploded twice before and  its hard to argue that its not going to explode again this summer. The fuse has been lit.

There was a time when I believed that humanity would always pull together during a natural disaster. But that was before Katrina.

But back to preparations. I'm going to buy me one of these while the 'free shipping' lasts.

Date:	2007-04-28 16:37
Subject:	A Personal Peak Oil Booklist
Security:	Public
Mood:	tired

While my little one is amusing himself throwing golf balls around the kitchen, I've been scouting out resources on peak oil. In doing so, I learned that Wikipedia has 'portals' on various topics, including energy.

There are so many books on peak oil and the inherent evils of the the oil industry that I want a guide to separate the good from the dreck. I've found a number of interesting book lists so far but nothing that I really trust yet. For example, there's a interesting bibliography on peak oil which includes Thomas Gold's alternative fringe theory that oil is produced abiotically but oddly doesn't mention his book.

I have read Hubbert's Peak and I tried reading the Pulitzer winning, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power but it was the wrong book at the wrong time for me. I've been reviewing what books LibraryThing users consider are about peak oil and still haven't made my decision on what to read next.

Date:	2007-04-27 07:46
Subject:	From Infrastructure: a field guide to the industrial landscape
Security:	Public
Mood:	contemplative

Seen up close, a tank farm seems immense; from another perspective, however, the tanks are amazingly small. Given the world's thirst for oil, they hold only a few weeks' supply. A typical refinery has enough tank capacity to store two weeks of crude stocks and four weeks' worth of refined products. It seems petroleum molecules are like those insects that emerge from the earth, live and breed for a day, and then perish. Oil is burned up no more than a few weeks after it comes out of the ground.

Brian Hayes, Infrastructure : a field guide to the industrial landscape

Chatham-Kent Oil Age Planning Group (CKOAP Group)

Date:	2007-04-26 06:01
Subject:	Ew. I'm a man with a beard!
Security:	Public
Mood:	disappointed

I am: Frank Herbert His style is often stilted, but he created what some consider the greatest SF novel of all time.

The oil industry is not prepared for a crisis. Its not in their best interests. Remember when the BP pipeline in Alaska ruptured in 2006? It ruptured because BP didn't do perform regular maintenance on the pipes. It was not for lack of money. And how are they punished? Gas prices skyrocket and the oil industry makes even more money.

April 30th is fast approaching